There was a recent article in the EETimes about Artimi and their WiMedia-compliant dual-mode wireless USB / Bluetooth chip (the A-150). According to the article, Artimi will enter production at the end of 2007 with an initial unit price of $15. By 2009 the price may drop to $5, making it really competitive by the standards of today's marketplace. Artimi is an interesting company with a unique market focus and great potential.
However, the article offers an unattributed market forecast for Certified Wireless USB chips in 2009 of 200 million units. It is unclear if the forecast is an annual shipment forecast or if it is a cumulative one; either way the number is more than an order of magnitude above the current WTRS forecast for these chipsets.
There are companies, such as Wisair and Icron, which do have customers that are shipping product into the marketplace, however in the case of Wisair it seems that the chips are not yet Certified Wireless USB - compliant components. Wisair is in the business of developing rf component IP, however Icron is today selling its cable-free USB products which perhaps will be someday be included as part of the wireless USB specification. This is reasonable given the inevitable pace of a standards group as it lays down foundational rules, defines applications, and creates testing and interoperability compliance measures. With the exception of some software applications there are no products or markets that achieved 200 million units in its second, or even third, year of growth.
Put in perspective, 200 million units shipped means one device for every man and woman in the United States between the ages of 15 and 64. That is an impossible adoption to gain in just a couple years. There may be 2 billion USB peripherals in the world, but that level of adoption took more than 12 years, and really did not become a large market until the computer manufacturers were shipping USB in every PC and Laptop.
It is valuable to consider how market forecasts fit into the broader environment before blindly reusing them. In this way one avoids the inflated expectations that come with hyping a market before its time, and also the challenges faced when product forecasts do not materialize in two years. It is much easier to think about ones forecast first, rather than updating that resume two years from now.
Comparison of forecasts recently released:
- Spring 2007 - EETimes/Artimi - "Certified Wireless USB chips to reach 200 million units in 2009"
- Winter 2006 - iSuppli/Focus Enhancements - "160 million units in 2009"
- Winter 2006 - WTRS - "18 million Certified Wireless USB chipsets to ship in 2009"
- Summer 2006 - ABI - "UWB shipments to reach 300 million in 2011"
- Spring 2006 - Instat/Harris Wiltshire & Grannis LLP - "13 million UWB products in 2006, 190 million UWB products in 2009"
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