Think More Thunk

Opportunity for UWB and Bluetooth in Consumer Electronics

Today market uncertainty is in the forefront of public thought and concern. The possibility that the world will sink into a global depression is the most pessimistic of scenarios, but daily more probable. The effect of the uncertainty on the mentality of the consumer and thus on consumer electronics markets for wireless technologies becomes a very important factor for OEMs to consider as consumer spending is likely to decline in near term throughout most of the world.

Conversely, a decline in consumer spending is likely to strengthen the prospects of WiMAX, especially in developing nations and markets, as companies focus their efforts in areas that have a stronger likelihood of providing a return on investment.

Consumer electronics products being released with new features, such as UWB-based certified wireless USB, must provide a clear solution to a need in order to be successful in near term markets. It is unclear if removing cables from USB-based hard drives, printers, digital cameras, and laptop docking stations will be sufficient to drive consumer demand, yet the possibility remains of putting the market uptake of UWB in consumer markets in jeopardy.

At the same time it is likely that market uncertainty will continue to affect credit markets for the near term and create a ripple effect of caution on the part of industrial and commercial markets as they put off borrowing to install new wireless-based systems that advance the automation of infrastructure and back-end processing. This will likely delay the market uptake of wireless sensor networks for perhaps a longer term than consumer market delay in wireless uptake.

Overall, this is the time for companies to invest in research and development of the next emerging wireless technology in preparation for the inevitable recovery of markets. It is not a good time to release consumer products based on emerging wireless protocols that do not satisfy a clear need. In current market conditions it is not consumer delighters (additional features) that will mean successful strategy, but meeting consumer requirements at the lowest cost instead.

This new report focuses on the prospects for emerging wireless technologies in consumer markets. It analyzes the activities and developments of companies and alliances in light of current market conditions.

To read more about this report, click here

Growth Drivers for UWB Markets

Over the last year three shifts in the UWB market emerged which indicates a market transition from demonstrations and prototypes to actual shipping products.
 
(1) An evolution of the Bluetooth SIG into an umbrella organization for multiple connectivity radios, including UWB, all running under the Bluetooth stack,
 
(2) Pulse~Link achieving customer validation of its CW-UWB products, and
 
(3) a strong move by CSR towards integrating UWB into its offering.
 
As the wireless connectivity protocols mature and gain market acceptance, the differentiation between Bluetooth, WiFi, and UWB begin to blur. Many of the same players involved in promoting and developing UWB-based wireless connectivity options are deeply embedded in the furtherance of the IEEE 802.11 family of specifications that drive Wi-Fi as a competitive alternative in the wireless connectivity arena. While each protocol and technology under development today will eventually find its own unique application and niche within the market, the component OEMs are maintaining their stake in the various initiatives as a means to ensure a place in the wireless connectivity market.
 
Now it is simply a matter of letting the market and equipment manufacturers define the application for the various wireless connectivity options.
 
The question looming over the emergence of UWB products today is related to the mechanism by which significant adoption will be stimulated. The key to this is strong application developer activity. Thus we expect that the application of UWB as an underlying protocol for high speed Bluetooth, with its tremendous number of Bluetooth application developers, will quickly dominate new product introductions for UWB technology once the high speed Bluetooth standard is completed.

Evolution of Wireless Connectivity Technologies

Communication today is more inclusive of our environment than ever before; in fact, the line between communication per sé and our daily activities and movements is no longer clearly definable, nor is commu­nication solely about direct human action and interaction.

Over the last year four shifts in the connectivity market emerged. These include (1) an apparent loss of Freescale in the UWB market, (2) a perhaps consequential shift for PulseLink, (3) a strong move by CSR towards integrating UWB into its offering, and (4) the consequences of releasing pre-standard 802.11n to the marketplace. These four shifts are the central theme of our latest wireless connectivity report.

Freescale, having purchased XtremeSpectrum, became the market leader in UWB with products based on the DS-UWB architecture. Freescale was the most significant competition to the Intel-led MB-OFDM UWB group that eventually dominated the WiMedia Alliance. However, Freescale dropped its UWB product line abruptly in 2006. Apparently Freescale made a corporate decision based on risk reduction with its UWB components due to a perceived inability to obtain a timely ROI. According to many in the industry, Freescale was in full production with its UWB chips and in the process of delivering those components to customers like Belkin when the corporate sector of Freescale decided to cut its losses, leaving several customers in the lurch. This opened the market for domination by MB-OFDM-based UWB methodologies.

While there are many companies and organizations with UWB product development strategies, the WiMedia Alliance and the USB I/F are in competition primarily with scattered and incompatible protocols. The primary target application for the WiMedia membership is a wireless bridge for USB, corresponding initially to home and consumer electronics markets. Secondary targets include enterprise and commercial venues.As the wireless connectivity protocols mature and gain market acceptance, the differentiation between Bluetooth, WiFi, and UWB begin to blur. The same players involved in promoting and developing UWB-based wireless connectivity options are deeply embedded in the furtherance of the IEEE 802.11 family of specifications that drive Wi-Fi into a competitive stance in the wireless broadband arena. While each protocol and technology under development today will eventually find its own unique application and niche within the market, the component OEMs are maintaining their stake in the various initiatives as a means to ensure a place in the wireless connectivity market. In fact, nearly every player in UWB and Wi-Fi has legacy participation in Bluetooth applications. Now it is simply a matter of letting the market and equipment manufacturers define the application of the various wireless connectivity options.

Certified Wireless USB (UWB) Forecast Divergence

There was a recent article in the EETimes about Artimi and their WiMedia-compliant dual-mode wireless USB / Bluetooth chip (the A-150). According to the article, Artimi will enter production at the end of 2007 with an initial unit price of $15. By 2009 the price may drop to $5, making it really competitive by the standards of today's marketplace. Artimi is an interesting company with a unique market focus and great potential.

However, the article offers an unattributed market forecast for Certified Wireless USB chips in 2009 of 200 million units. It is unclear if the forecast is an annual shipment forecast or if it is a cumulative one; either way the number is more than an order of magnitude above the current WTRS forecast for these chipsets.

There are companies, such as Wisair and Icron, which do have customers that are shipping product into the marketplace, however in the case of Wisair it seems that the chips are not yet Certified Wireless USB - compliant components. Wisair is in the business of developing rf component IP, however Icron is today selling its cable-free USB products which perhaps will be someday be included as part of the wireless USB specification. This is reasonable given the inevitable pace of a standards group as it lays down foundational rules, defines applications, and creates testing and interoperability compliance measures. With the exception of some software applications there are no products or markets that achieved 200 million units in its second, or even third, year of growth.

Put in perspective, 200 million units shipped means one device for every man and woman in the United States between the ages of 15 and 64. That is an impossible adoption to gain in just a couple years. There may be 2 billion USB peripherals in the world, but that level of adoption took more than 12 years, and really did not become a large market until the computer manufacturers were shipping USB in every PC and Laptop.

It is valuable to consider how market forecasts fit into the broader environment before blindly reusing them. In this way one avoids the inflated expectations that come with hyping a market before its time, and also the challenges faced when product forecasts do not materialize in two years. It is much easier to think about ones forecast first, rather than updating that resume two years from now.

Comparison of forecasts recently released:

• Spring 2007 - EETimes/Artimi - "Certified Wireless USB chips to reach 200 million units in 2009"
• Winter 2006 - iSuppli/Focus Enhancements - "160 million units in 2009"
• Winter 2006 - WTRS - "18 million Certified Wireless USB chipsets to ship in 2009"
• Summer 2006 - ABI - "UWB shipments to reach 300 million in 2011"
• Spring 2006 - Instat/Harris Wiltshire & Grannis LLP - "13 million UWB products in 2006, 190 million UWB products in 2009"

Infineon closes R&D center

Infineon, one of the original significant semiconductor OEMs to get into ultra wideband development has decided to close up their UWB activity. It may be that this is the beginning of a trend.

Link: Globes [online] - Infineon closes R&D center.